NewsThis week, the macro factors improved, and the consumption of industrial metals rose after the increase, and the prices of industrial metals rose, led by copper, lead and zinc. In terms of small metals, the prices of lithium and cobalt related products continue to find the bottom. The prices of tungsten and molybdenum products continue to rise. The price of precious metals has slightly changed.
Copper: Copper prices are a trending opportunity;
Aluminum: Market sentiment is optimistic, aluminum prices are up; Shengqiang Machinery
Lead and zinc: processing fee TC is firm, zinc stocks rise slightly;
Tin: During the week, the high and low, the medium and long-term logic remains unchanged;
Precious metals: The cash price has fallen slightly.
Investment Strategy
Copper prices showed a trend of rising opportunities, pushing the copper sector this week, Shanghai copper fell back slightly and fell slightly, the global total inventory is still accumulating due to China's low demand season, seasonal accumulation. Among them, SHFE stocks increased by 0.9 million tons to 115,000 tons, and Shanghai Bonded Zone increased by 26,000 tons to 505,000 tons. However, LME stocks fell by 0.77 million tons to 126,100 tons, which was at a low level since 2007. The registered warehouse receipts in the inventory decreased by 17,600 tons to 22,200 tons, accounting for only 17.6%. The cancellation of warehouse receipts increased by 0.99 million tons to 103,900 tons, accounting for 82.4%, and the market continued. Chaoyang Crusher
In the short-term, LME's forced positions still directly determine the market trend. The sustainability depends mainly on the micro-level of China's demand recovery progress. From the feedback of many institutions, demand recovery is slow. In addition, macro-China-US trade negotiations have a certain impact on copper prices. The rise in copper prices is only a form. The core is the macro-expected repairs that are optimistic about China's social recovery and Sino-US trade negotiations. At the same time, it has a good fundamentals such as low inventory and high supply, and the market is consistent.
In the medium and long term, the trend is rising. Macro: In the domestic cycle of social financing/M2 recovery but the economy is still in the downturn, the rebound in social financing can drive the rebound of copper prices. Although the economy is in a down cycle, demand or downturn, prices have been repeated. However, due to the high probability of China's economy stabilizing in the second half of this year, copper prices have bottomed out. Fundamental: The tight pattern or further intensification. Supply side: the new copper mines fell by 300,000 tons and the waste six categories will further increase the scrap copper, which will cause the supply growth rate to continue to decline. At the same time, the supply disturbance factor will further limit the supply release; demand side: steady increase. Stocks will continue to be low. Investment Strategy
Based on the macroeconomic probability of bottoming out in the second half of the year, and superimposed good fundamentals, copper prices are expected to rise in 2019, and the copper sector is strongly recommended. It is recommended to pay attention to the copper resources of Jiangxi Copper (600362) and the copper industry growth standard Zijin. Mining (601899), Hong Kong stocks are recommended to focus on Minmetals Resources (1208.HK) with high performance elasticity and China Nonferrous Mining (1258.HK) with very low valuation.
